Vol. 45, n.4, December 2004
About the statistical validation of probability generators
G. Grandori, E. Guagenti and L. Petrini
Received April 22, 2003; accepted July 22, 2003
The procedures that generate probability statements are called probability generators (or simply generators). In this paper, we consider the generators that yield the magnitude distribution function FM in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of FM in the range of strong earthquakes is of decisive importance. In general, however, the statistical validation of a generator in the range of interest is not feasible because of the limited number of occurrences of strong earthquakes. In spite of this, in this paper we show that a simple empirical generator of FM can be statistically validated from an engineering point of view thanks to: 1) a new approach to the comparison between competing generators, and 2) the comparison, following this new approach, of the empirical generator with a particular class of generators based on mathematical models.
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